P(doom)

My p(doom) is 15%.

I’ve been to two tech events this year where a stranger has asked for my p(doom) as casually as if they were asking for directions to the bathroom.

At gatherings like these, it’s not uncommon to hear someone strike up a conversation by asking, “What are your timelines?” or "What's your p(doom)?”

Those at the extreme end of the AI safety spectrum with the highest levels of p(doom) grew increasingly unsettled by the seeming uncomplicated optimism with which [Sam] Altman and the rest of the company viewed this history.

And the cartoonish connotations are apt: just like such fictional battles, p(doom) estimates are based in fantasy rather than data or empirical fact.

Mountainhead plays out less like a drama between four tenuously connected, very rich friends, and more like a random word generator of tech and finance bro jargon – decel (deceleration, as in AI), p(doom) (the probability of an AI apocalypse), first principles.

For some experts, their P(doom) is AI taking over a power grid. For others, their P(doom) is AI leading to mass job loss. Others say their (P)doom^([sic]) is already happening now - right? - and it's AI supercharging the harms of social media, including the spread of misinformation.