Superforecaster

On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.

An important lesson taught by the gaming approach to warfare is that the superforecaster must be always open to 'unknown unknowns', to use the decision-theoretic jargon popularized by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war.

The superforecasters turned out to outperform the other contestants by a substantial margin in the second and third years of the tournament, that is, they were not just lucky.